By Jacob Becquey

Of all the divisions in Major League Baseball, the AL East retains its reputation as the most brutal division in Baseball. You have the New York Yankees, the historic juggernaut with a whopping 27 World Series titles. You have the Boston Red Sox, arguably the most successful team of the 21st century, winning 4 titles in 14 years with numerous star players. You have the Tampa Bay Rays, whose small-market formula turns a poor on-paper team into a winning squad most years. You have the Baltimore Orioles, whose young core bolsters a truly threatening lineup. And then, you have your 2025 AL East Champions, the Toronto Blue Jays, who went worst-to-first and came inches within a World Series win.

So, if you were to predict the 2026 AL East Champion, who would you pick? While the Yankees seemed to be the popular fit, Toronto was seen as a true contender for, not only the division, but the AL Pennant.

At 59-64, the Blue Jays sit 2 games back of a playoff spot and 16.5 of the division, a massively disappointing position considering their success in 2025. Where did it all go wrong? To answer that question, lets go all the way back to November.

A Promising Offseason

On November 3rd, 2025, the Blue Jays began a long, painful period of acceptance. They came one lead off third away from a championship, but instead they went right back to square one. Instead of sulking in their losses, Toronto responded quickly, jumpstarting the Free Agency market in the process.

On November 26th, ESPN confirmed that the Blue Jays had agreed to a deal with Dylan Cease worth $210 million over seven years, the largest pitcher contract in franchise history. While Cease had a disappointing 2025 campaign, pitching to a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings, his underlying stuff proved superb, earning him his lucrative deal. In addition, Toronto made some key additions in both the lineup and bullpen, signing Kazuma Okamoto out of Japan and Tyler Rodgers to multi-year deals, bolstering a team already proven to be pennant worthy. They capped off the offseason with a small, yet consequential, trade, sending Joey Loperfido to the Astros for Jesus Sanchez.

The beauty of the offseason does not come without subtraction and disappointment, however. The Blue Jays would have to part ways with fan-favorite Bo Bichette, whose great 2025 bounce back bolstered the middle of the lineup. It was Bichette’s three-run moonshot in Game 7 of the World Series that made the game so close, but now, he was to switch leagues and play third base for the New York Mets. Furthermore, Toronto’s involvement with Kyle Tucker would prove most disappointing, as the slugger ended up signing a massive 4 year, $240 million dollar deal with their interleague-rival Los Angeles Dodgers.

The offseason, while a failure in some regards, bore precious fruit for a team yearning to end its 30+ year drought. At the time, it was exciting to see how these new pieces would pan out. Anyone can predict a baseball season, but the game is played on grass, so there was nothing left to do but wait for opening day.

Opening Day

Opening day finally arrived on March 26th, an exciting time to be a baseball fan. For the Blue Jays, the season started the very next day, and the quest for a pennant defense began with a three-game set against the Athletics. The game was hard-fought, including a two homerun performance by A’s catcher Shea Langeliers, but Jays SS Andres Giminez drove in all three of Toronto’s runs to secure an Opening Night victory, including the walk-off hit. The Jays would go on to sweep the A’s, improving to 3-0 on the year.

The good times did not keep rolling for long, as beloved catcher Alejandro Kirk suffered a broken thumb in a game against the White Sox, an injury that would keep him out until June. Toronto would go 10-16 in April, dropping back in the AL East race, a deficit they still have yet to conquer. There were some positives, however; Kevin Gausman pitched very well, striking out 29 in six starts to the tune of a 3.38 ERA. Dylan Cease was even better, striking out 39 with a 3.12 ERA in five starts. Louis Varland emerged as a rock-solid relief arm, pitching to a 0.77 ERA in twelve appearances. Overall, the record was poor, but the performances were promising.

May would prove to be an average month for the blue birds, as the club ended the month with a 15-14 record. It all culminated in a four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles, who similarly struggled to begin the season despite division-winning expectations. Toronto took the first two games of the series, including a dramatic 6-5 comeback win powered by rookie Charles McAdoo. Things finally started to look up for the Jays, as they went up 5-1 in the ninth inning to try and win the series the very next day. Instead, Jeff Hoffman completely melted down, letting five runs by in a 6-5 loss, officially losing the closer job after the game. The Jays proceeded to lose 9-5 on the final day of the month, dropping a very winnable series in what ended up being a pivotal and symbolic set.

Injuries and Star Struggles

The Blue Jays lost many key players to injuries this year, a key point used to explain their disappointing position. Cody Ponce, who won the MVP in the KBO last season, suffered a torn ACL in his first start of the season, which ended any chance of a breakout. The aforementioned Alejandro Kirk injury kept the backstop out for months. The Blue Jays also lost George Springer, Jesus Sanchez, Luis Urias, Jonaton Clase, and Patrick Corbin for multiple weeks. Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Anthony Santander, and Yimi Garcia all started the season on the injured list, with only the first 2 returning so far. Perhaps the most vital injury was to Addison Barger, whose clutch World Series performance nearly delivered the title to Toronto. Barger would spend weeks on the IL after and April injury before returning in May, only to receive surgery after a hard throw from the outfield in a game against the Angels. Many of Toronto’s lineup qualms could have been solved by the power-hitting right fielder/third baseman, but instead, they needed their other stars to perform well.

When you think of the 2025 Blue Jays, two names come to mind: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. The two stars were nearly unstoppable last year, with Springer receiving MVP votes and Guerrero winning ALCS MVP. Many thought this season would be business-as-usual for the two sluggers, but this season has not gone well for either of them. Guerrero is currently slashing .262/.337/.356, which is good for a .693 OPS, a nearly .150 point drop from last year. Springer has faired slightly better, slashing .233/.315/.391, good for a .706 OPS. These two lackluster seasons explain a lot of Toronto’s offensive problems; if Toronto wants to reach the playoffs, they will need Springer and Guerrero to start climbing back to stardom.

The Trade Deadline

The Blue Jays battled through June and July with a 22-28 record, eventually hovering around ten games below the .500 mark. With the August 3rd trade deadline looming, the Blue Jays had to make a heartbreaking decision: they had to trade franchise ace Kevin Gausman. Gausman struggled through 2026 with an ERA over 4, but his underlying stuff and strikeout prowess proved him valuable to a contending team. A day before the deadline, Toronto traded Gausman to the Chicago Cubs for two prospects, Brett Bateman and Ty Southisene.

That was not the end of the sell-off, however, as two more prominent Blue Jays were dealt: Jeff Hoffman was traded to the Minnesota Twins for three prospects, including top-10 organizational prospect Dasan Hill, while Daulton Varsho was dealt to the Houston Astros for big-league arm Spencer Arrighetti. The prospect haul was debatably worth it for the Blue Jays, but it hurt the team to see their teammates leave, especially Kevin Gausman, who reportedly cried with George Springer and Daulton Varsho.

The deadline did come with one promising acquisition, that being Jose Soriano. The former Angels ace was traded for infield prospect Arjun Nimmala on the morning of August 3rd, who currently ranks as the #38 prospect in all of Baseball. Soriano’s arrival indicated Toronto’s intention to compete beyond 2026, a relief to many fans. Soriano boasted ++ stuff and minor control issues, which Toronto believed could be solved. With a new haul of prospects and frontline starter, the Blue Jays were ready to salvage their season.

A Brighter Tomorrow

With all of the star problems, injury quarrels, and overall mediocre performances, one would expect Toronto to be completely out of contention. However, despite everything, the Blue Jays sit just two games back of the final wild card spot. In the blink of an eye, Toronto has revived their season with a stretch of good play, including series wins over the Philadelphia Phillies and red-hot Boston Red Sox. A lot of this success can be attributed to rookies; Kazuma Okamoto is one homerun away from breaking the franchise rookie bomb record, Brett Bateman has looked like a promising replacement for Daulton Varsho, Sean Keys hit a three-run blast on Canada Day against the New York Mets, and Trey Yesavage posted solid numbers as a #3 starter. Toronto also had good performances from Ernie Clement, who appeared in his first All-Star game as the AL leading vote-getter, Dylan Cease, who is currently contending for a Cy Young, and Jose Soriano, whose two starts for Toronto have been very decent.

The Blue Jays still need a lot to go right to contend this year, but August has been kind to them, and anything can happen in Baseball. Toronto suffered a nightmarish second half, but with hope on the horizon, they may be starting to wake up.

How do you think Toronto will fair for the rest of the season? Let us know on X, @Full_Count_Blog!